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    <title>Ravings</title>
    <link>http://badke.ca/weblog/</link>
    <description>Notes from the strange world of David Badke</description>
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      <title>Ravings</title>
      <link>http://badke.ca/weblog/</link>
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    <item>
 <title><![CDATA[Lies, damn lies, and statistics]]></title>
 <link>http://badke.ca/weblog/index.php?itemid=14</link>
<description><![CDATA[	<p>"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli</p>
	<p>Last night a guy on TV told me a damn lie. This is the kind of lie that doesn't, at first glance, look like a lie at all. The damn lie the TV told me was that a certain brand of vitamin/nutritional supplement would keep me from getting heart attacks. That, of course, is not what the ad actually <i>said</i>, but it is what it <i>implied</i> and wanted me to <i>believe</i>. </p>
	<p>What the ad actually <i>said</i> was that "studies suggest that [the product] may help to reduce the risk of heart disease." This statement is so riddled with uncertainty that it is meaningless. It promises nothing. It doesn't say that these unnamed studies prove anything about the product (we don't even know if it was the product being studied). It doesn't say who did the studies or whether they were accepted as valid by the health care community; they could as well have been done by the guy in the mail room of the company selling the product. Citing "studies" is meant to make us think that there is some experimental evidence behind the hype. The rest of the statement tells us that even if the "studies" are valid, they don't hold out much hope. The product only "may" have any affect at all (what is the probability that it will? 10%? 50%?), and if it does have an affect, it will only "help to reduce the risk" (help how? Reduce the risk by how much? What risk?).</p>
	<p>Another ad proudly stated that a certain brand of skin cream "may help to reduce the appearance of fine lines" on the skin. A good coat of plaster definitely will obliterate the deepest fissures in the skin! Yet another skin cream ad said that 80% of the women who used it saw an effect, and an astonishing 60% saw an improvement. Wow! Great odds! At the roulette table, anyway...</p>
	<p>Advertisers, politicians, lawyers, used car salesmen... damn liars, all of them. They lie by telling us only part of the truth; they lie by misdirection; they lie by using twisty weasel words to imply the opposite of what they are actually saying. We are lied to so continuously that we don't even notice anymore. We expect the lies, we are used to the lies, the lies wash over us and immerse us, maybe the lies even comfort us. Do you trust your political leaders? Do you trust the guy trying to sell you something? Who do you trust?</p>
	<p>The best weapon against the liars is skepticism. Blind trust is dangerous for the individual, fatal to society. Question everything! </p>
]]></description>
 <category>General</category>
<comments>http://badke.ca/weblog/index.php?itemid=14</comments>
 <pubDate>Thu, 20 Jan 2005 12:09:47 -0300</pubDate>
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 <title><![CDATA[No Duck]]></title>
 <link>http://badke.ca/weblog/index.php?itemid=9</link>
<description><![CDATA[	<p>Reality is a difficult concept for me. What is real? Anything I can sense? Is my reality the same as yours? </p>
	<p>What if everyone else in the room sees something you can't see - is it real?</p>
	<p>Like maybe that duck on the table...</p>
	<p>&nbsp;<br />
"You haven't even noticed the duck!"</p>
	<p>"What duck?"</p>
	<p>"This duck, right here in front of me on the table."</p>
	<p>Brian looked puzzled. "There's no duck on the table."</p>
	<p>"Sure there is. See? Right here! Can't you see it?"</p>
	<p>"You're crazy."</p>
	<p>"Hi!" said Cathy, coming into the room. She looked at Bill and did a double take. "What's that duck doing here?" she asked.</p>
	<p>"Wait a minute?" said Brian.</p>
	<p>"Brian says I don't have a duck on the table, Cathy."</p>
	<p>"Why do you have a duck on the table?" asked Cathy.</p>
	<p>"It followed me home from the park. I didn't want it wandering around the house."</p>
	<p>"Cathy," said Brian a bit shakily, "there is no duck on the table."</p>
	<p>Cathy looked at Brian with raised eyebrow. "Looks like a duck to me. What do you think it is?"</p>
	<p>"I don't think it's anything at all. There isn't anything on the table! No duck, no anything! Just what are you two up to, anyway?"</p>
	<p>Bill looked at Cathy, who shrugged. "I don't know what Bill's up to with that duck, but I'm not up to anything. There's a dingy white duck on the table in front of Bill, and I don't know what your problem is."</p>
	<p>"There is no damn duck on the table!"</p>
	<p>"OK, don't get excited?"</p>
	<p>"What's all the yelling about? I'm trying to study?" Joe stopped and stared at the table in front of Bill. "A duck? You have a duck in the house? Don't we have a 'No Duck' rule here? I could have sworn the rules said 'No ducks'." Joe walked out, mumbling to himself.</p>
	<p>Jill came in the back door behind Brian and took off her coat. "Hi, guys! What's happening? Having a meeting?"</p>
	<p>"Those two claim Bill has a duck on the table in front of him."</p>
	<p>Jill laughed. "A duck? I can hardly wait for the punch line on this one!"</p>
	<p>"You mean you can't see it either?" asked Cathy. "This is really weird."</p>
	<p>"OK, I'll play along," said Jill, and walked around the table toward Bill. She stopped short and her mouth fell open.</p>
	<p>"Hey! How did you do that?"</p>
	<p>"Do what?"</p>
	<p>"Make the duck appear like that! It wasn't there, and now it is."</p>
	<p>Brian groaned. Jill looked at him, then at Cathy and Bill. She moved back toward Brian, stopped, moved toward Bill again.</p>
	<p>"It disappears right there," she said, "and reappears right here. Pretty good, Bill. I didn't know you did magic?"</p>
	<p>"I don't," said Bill. "This duck followed me home from the park, and hasn't disappeared once since. You still can't see it, Brian?"</p>
	<p>Brian shook his head.</p>
	<p>"Try standing where Jill is."</p>
	<p>Brian hesitated, then stood and walked slowly toward Jill, keeping his eyes on the table in front of Bill. When he reached Jill he stopped and shook his head again. "No duck."</p>
	<p>"But it's right there, Brian!" said Jill, "I can see it, they can see it, why can't you see it? Bill, how the hell are you doing that?"</p>
	<p>"I'm not doing anything, I'm just sitting here with this duck."</p>
	<p>"There is no duck on the table!" Brian yelled. "No duck! You people are all crazy!"</p>
	<p>"Well, Brian, there's four of us who see it and only you who doesn't, so I'd say you're the crazy one."</p>
	<p>Brian stood speechless.</p>
	<p>"But since it bothers you so much, Brian," said Bill, raising his arms, "I'll just get rid of it for you." He suddenly brought his hands together in front him with a resounding Clap! Brian jumped. "OK, Brian, there you go. No duck."</p>
	<p>Jill and Cathy looked solemnly at Bill, then at Brian. "No duck." Joe came in and said "No duck." They all silently watched Brian.</p>
]]></description>
 <category>General</category>
<comments>http://badke.ca/weblog/index.php?itemid=9</comments>
 <pubDate>Thu, 13 Jan 2005 12:19:45 -0300</pubDate>
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 <title><![CDATA[The Decline and Fall of the American Empire]]></title>
 <link>http://badke.ca/weblog/index.php?itemid=6</link>
<description><![CDATA[	<p>The American War - one of them, anyway...</p>
	<p>Just think of what could have been accomplished with all that wasted money!</p>
	<p><center><br />
<iframe src="http://badke.ca/david/stuff/costofwar.htm"></iframe><br />
</center><br />
&nbsp;<br />
Not only is money being wasted, so are lives. And for what?<br />
&nbsp;</p>
	<p>"The evil Saddam has Weapons of Mass Destruction! We must stop him or he'll use them on us!" says George.</p>
	<p>Haven't found many of them, have you George? Oh, well, can't be right evey time. Even if Iraq did have Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) stockpiles once, they were no threat to the USA homeland. And speaking of WMD stockpiles: which country has the most - and most deadly - weapons? Which country has shown a willingness to use them, up to and including nukes? Which country continues to develop these globally-threatening weapons, despite signed treaties? Which country believes it has the God-given right to use those weapons wherever it damn well pleases? Why, yes, George, I think it <i>is</i> your country!</p>
	<p>"Well, it seems Iraq did not have WMD stockpiles after all. But Saddam was a threat to the USA and had to be stopped!" says George.</p>
	<p>Thanks for clearing up the confusion about WMD stockpiles, George. As for the threat to the USA: well, George, what threat was that? Was Saddam poised to invade the USA? Were the Republican Guards massing at the US border?</p>
	<p>"He supported terrorists!" cries George.</p>
	<p>Perhaps he did, though the evidence to support that claim seems awfully weak. You tried (and failed) to pin 9/11 on Saddam. Anything else worrying you, George? Maybe something to do with oil?</p>
	<p>"It was never about oil!" protests George, growing red in the face and thumping his Bible. "Saddam is a godless, evil madman!"</p>
	<p>Evil? Yes, he is a Very Bad Man, no denying that. Perhaps not on the scale of Adolph Hitler, but still, in his own limited sphere, not someone who should be running a country. And Saddam may be godless (I don't really know), but let's not take that to mean Muslims are godless; their concept of God is just a bit different from yours.</p>
	<p>And it was all about oil, George, as the whole world knows. You need Iraqi oil to fuel your economy and keep your rich friends rich. Of course your adventure in Iraq is helping trash the economy of the USA, but I'll bet that's not affecting your rich supporters, is it? War is always about wanting what someone else has and taking it away from them by force.</p>
	<p>You seem to be very successful at lying to your own people, George; and a small majority of your people seem to like being lied to. It helps to keep them ignorant about the rest of the world, to stoke their paranoia with constant warnings of terrorist attack, and to encourage an us-against-them mentality. The rest of the world is not so easily duped (Tony Blair doesn't count - he went against the wishes of his own people). There are a great many of us watching you, George, with a disturbing mixture of disgust, horror and amusement, watching what is clearly the decline and fall of the American Empire. For the sake of your people, I hope that fall is not too painful, except to you and your friends.</p>
]]></description>
 <category>General</category>
<comments>http://badke.ca/weblog/index.php?itemid=6</comments>
 <pubDate>Tue, 11 Jan 2005 16:35:53 -0300</pubDate>
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 <title><![CDATA[The old <i>Ravings</i>]]></title>
 <link>http://badke.ca/weblog/index.php?itemid=8</link>
<description><![CDATA[	<p>Way back when I still used paper, in the early 1990s, I produced a newsletter called <i>Ravings</i>, which was distributed to a few friends and relatives. I stopped publishing it years ago; it was too much trouble. And now we have blogs! And now <i>Ravings</i> is back, minus the paper.</p>
	<p>There are two of the original <i>Ravings</i> articles online; you can find them <a href="http://badke.ca/david/ravings/">here</a>.
</p>
<br />
]]></description>
 <category>General</category>
<comments>http://badke.ca/weblog/index.php?itemid=8</comments>
 <pubDate>Mon, 10 Jan 2005 11:26:00 -0300</pubDate>
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